Every NFL Thursday, I will attempt, using the tools and stats from FTNBets.com, to slay the sportsbooks, scribbling my favorite side, total and prop picks for the week’s Thursday night game. Some will win.
Many will lose. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. Here’s where I’m stacking greenbacks on Dolphins/Jaguars.
Side: Jacksonville -3 (DraftKings, -110) — Forget Dallas, Jacksonville is America’s team. Or is it the United Kingdom’s? Whether stars and stripes or Union Jack supported, the Jags are a smart money wager in Colorado or across the pond. Miami is expected to be without top cover corner, Byron Jones, exposing an already exploitable secondary to further bombardments. Against Cam Newton and Josh Allen Weeks 1-2, the ‘Fins allowed a staggering 10.6 pass yards per attempt. Toss in rookie RB James Robinson’s smooth moves and tackle-thumping skills and the Jags coast to a cover.
Total: OVER 47.5 (FanDuel, -110) — After opening at 44, sharps and novice wagerers alike pounded the total with the vim and vigor equivalent to a 350-pound offensive lineman thrashing a prime rib buffet.
It’s not nearly the value it was earlier in the week, but a shootout is entirely plausible. Wyatt Earp and Doc Holliday would agree. Be a “huckleberry” and bet the OVER. Both secondaries, compromised by injury or ineptitude, have given up a combined 9.5 pass yards per attempt. Equally generous, the rush defenses have yielded a combined 4.1 yards per carry to RBs. Points should be plentiful.
PROP: James Robinson OVER 67.5 rushing yards (DraftKings, -112) — The undrafted rookie out of Illinois State has sent shockwaves through the fantasy community and is the reason why Jacksonville parted ways with Leonard Fournette. Exhibiting a legit three-down skill set, he’s trucked over fools (3.88 YAC per attempt) and ranked handsomely in yards created. His artfulness dodging tacklers or driving piles deserves more publicity. Matched against a Miami front which has allowed with eighth-most adjusted line yards through two weeks, the Jags workhorse whinnies.
SUPER BONUS PROP: Ryan Fitzpatrick OVER 15.5 rush yards (DraftKings, -112) — Don’t be a pogonophobe. The NFL’s “Lorax,” and his wonderfully busy beard, is one of the most entertaining scoring dualists in the league. Throughout his career, stretching over half the damn league, he’s sacrificed his body as an opportunistic runner. His reckless abandon is well-documented. Five times he topped the proposed number last season and matched the feat Week 1 versus New England. In a contest in which I fully expect Jacksonville to build a noteworthy lead, Fitzmagic pulls a couple of late runs out of his helmet against drop-back coverage. A final total in the range of 18-22 yards is very doable.
Season record: 3-1