Player props are one of the best markets to attack for sports bettors. Every week I will be picking some of my favorite NFL props for the weekend’s games, powered by our tools at FTNFantasy, FTNDaily and FTNBets.
The props went 2-1 last week, which is a fine start to the NFL season. Here are three props worth considering for Week 2.
Calvin Ridley OVER 4.5 receptions (-150, BetMGM)
It is important not to overreact too much to what occurred in Week 1, but some of these lines at BetMGM have not reacted enough in my opinion. Ridley was heavily targeted in the first game, catching nine balls on 12 passes thrown his way. Granted, Matt Ryan threw 54 passes, but Ridley’s total of 12 targets was tied for the team lead with Julio Jones and Russell Gage.
This contest with the Cowboys has a game total as high as 54.5 at some books, meaning there should be plenty of scoring. High-octane games certainly favor the passing game. Ridley appears to be a good bet for nine or more targets every week in this offense, which would only necessitate a 56% catch rate to hit on this prop. Ridley has caught 69% of balls thrown his way for his career.
Adam Thielen OVER 4.5 receptions (-129, BetMGM)
Thielen is the main target in the Minnesota passing game. He is surrounded by young players at both receiver and tight end, which led to Thielen seeing over 30% of team targets in Week 1.
Make no mistake, this Vikings’ coaching staff wants to run the football. Even facing a major deficit to Green Bay, the team still only threw the ball 25 times. That could make this wager thin, but this is expected to be another high-scoring game environment with the Colts. In fact, the Vikings could be playing from behind most of the year if their defense, particularly the secondary, does not improve. Take advantage here.
Cam Newton OVER 7.5 rush attempts (-112, BetMGM)
Newton looked every bit the runner he was earlier in his career last week when he toted the ball 15 times, including twice for scores. Now his rush attempts prop is half of that, which seems light for the Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Sure, the Patriots were playing with a lead all game against the Dolphins, but Newton still had five first-half carries, pacing well past this prop number.
The Patriots are underdogs in this game, but the spread is relatively low, sitting in the mid-40s. Expect New England to look to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands, which would require Newton to shoulder the load yet again as a runner.